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In any case, the study’s findings have obvious public-policy implications for how future stimulus programs should be designed, Prof.
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Wurgler speculated that, for this third round, the market could have caught on to the likely impact of the stimulus and, therefore, prices already reflected the effect of the checks before they arrived in investors’ accounts. The researchers didn’t find any impact on meme-stock performance in the wake of the third round of stimulus payments that occurred in March 2021. Wurgler speculates that “GameStop might not have been the meme stock it was but for the stimulus checks sent just a few weeks earlier.” That cemented GameStop’s reputation as the paradigmatic meme stock. Over the three weeks following the day on which the stimulus payments started showing up in bank accounts, the meme stocks on average did 18.7 percentage points better than the non-meme stocks.īuilding upon social-media attention that went viral, skyrocketed from below $20 a share to an intraday high of nearly $500. In that round of payments, citizens received up to $600 each, totaling nearly $150 billion. The second stimulus program in December 2020 and January 2021 showed even more striking results. On average, across all other three-week periods during the first year of the pandemic, the meme-stock group outperformed the non-meme group by an average of just 3.0 percentage points. To be sure, the pandemic has been a good time generally for meme stocks. That kind of outperformance makes a strong circumstantial case that the stimulus payments drove investments, Prof. The professors found that over the three weeks after the day payments started showing up in bank accounts, the meme-stock group gained 15.5 percentage points more than the non-meme group.
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They looked at a number of sources to make the call, including social-media posts in which investors talked about receiving stimulus payments in their bank accounts. Of Harvard University and Toomas Laarits of NYU-determined exactly when individuals would have been able to spend or invest their payments. To measure the money’s immediate impact on the stock market, the researchers-along with Prof. Track the spendingĬonsider the first stimulus program in April 2020, in which citizens received payments of up to $1,200 from the government, totaling more than $200 billion. And it suggests that the flows of cash into the market were large and had significant impact, he says. But this study offers evidence to support some experts’ suspicions that stimulus money was making its way into the stock market, saysĪ co-author of the study and professor of finance at New York University.
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The growth in social media and the increased number of individuals working at home with free time on their hands. Of course, a lot of factors went into the meme-stock surge-including the advent of commissionless trading at websites such as